How the ROI math works
This calculator compares two paths over your chosen horizon. Path A (the trade): you pay the program cost up front, earn nothing during your training months, then earn the state-adjusted median wage for the trade, growing 2.5% per year. Path B (staying): you keep earning your current wage, also growing 2.5% per year. The break-even year is the first year where cumulative trade earnings pass cumulative stay earnings.
Key assumptions, stated plainly.
- Wage growth is a flat 2.5% per year for both paths. Real raises, promotions, and recessions are not modeled.
- State-adjusted trade wages are estimates: the national trade median multiplied by (your state's all-occupations median / the $50,980 national all-occupations median). They are not the trade-specific median for your state.
- Training months assume no earnings. If your apprenticeship pays you while you train, set training months to 0.
- Program cost is paid in year 1. Tools, certification exam fees, loans and interest, taxes, and benefits are not included.
- Median means half of workers earn more and half earn less. Your outcome depends on your employer, city, and skill level.
Frequently asked questions
Is trade school worth it financially?
For many trades it is, because training is short and cheap relative to the wage jump. An electrician program might cost $6,000 and take 12 months, and the national median wage is $63,190 (BLS OEWS, May 2025). Compare that to a 4-year degree that can cost $120,000 or more. Run your own numbers above, because the answer depends on your current wage and your state.
How accurate are the wage figures?
Wage medians come from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey, May 2025 vintage, which is the latest available. The national medians are exact BLS figures. The state adjustment is an estimate that scales the national trade median by your state's overall wage level, because BLS does not publish every trade median for every state in one dataset.
What if I do an apprenticeship instead of paying for school?
Many electrical, plumbing, welding, and carpentry apprenticeships charge little or nothing, and some pay you while you train. In the calculator, set program cost near $0 and training months to 0 if you earn during the apprenticeship. That combination produces the fastest break-even of any option.
Why does the state picker change the wage?
Wages vary a lot by state. A welder in Alaska typically earns more than a welder in Mississippi, mostly tracking the overall wage level of each state. The calculator estimates this with the ratio of your state's all-occupations median to the $50,980 national median (both BLS OEWS, May 2025).
Should I quit my job to train full time?
Quitting means lost wages during training, which the calculator includes as months with $0 earnings. If you can train part time while working, your break-even arrives sooner. Many community college programs are designed for evening and weekend schedules for exactly this reason.
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